Is picking 1st or 2nd in the NFL Draft More Valuable?
With Lions’ defensive end Aidan Hutchinson, Texans quarterback CJ Stroud, and Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels all being better than those drafted ahead of them, the question of, “Is the second pick worth more than the first pick in the NFL Draft?” has been raised.
Based on what history has told us, the second pick seems more valued than the first. Looking at the upcming draft, Colorado Quarterback Sheduer Sanders or Miami Quarterback Cameron Ward will be havilty looked at with the first two picks.
But how about previous first picks in comparison to second picks?
I examined every first pick in comparison to every second pick from the 2016 to 2023 NFL Drafts using Pro Football Reference’s Weighted Career Approximate Value statistic. I took into account the statistics of the players for the team that drafted them.
The first two I examined who were selected 1st overall, Jared Goff and Myles Garrett, were better than the next player in most categories. However, running back Saquon Barkley (2nd pick) outplayed quarterback Baker Mayfield (1st pick) in terms of providing value to the team that drafted them, even if Mayfield has had a better wAV (weighted approximate value) overall.
The same inflation applied to Cardnials’ quarterback Kyler Murray, who was rated higher than 49ers defensive end Nick Bosa, even though Bosa has far more accolades than Murray. However, the stat inflation did not apply to Bengals’ QB Joe Burrow and Jagiars’ quarterback Trevor Lawrence.
The aforementioned 2nd overall picks Aidan Hutchinson and CJ Stroud have outplayed the 1st picks Travon Walker, Jaguars’ defensive end, and Bryce Young, quarterbakc for the Panthers.
That makes the score 5-4 in favor of the second pick. So, though it may seem close, is the 2nd pick more valuable than the 1st pick? We may never truly know, but one thing is for sure, and that is nothing is completley predictible in the NFL.
