Trump Has Extended the Hormuz Ceasefire, But Will It Hold? 

Trump extended the ceasefire Tuesday to, in his words, give Iran’s fractured government more time to come up with a unified proposal. He has said that the US blockade of Iranian ships leaving the strait will continue for now. The US has turned back over a dozen ships, disabling and taking control over one as well.

Iran has maintained that it will continue to prevent ships from leaving the port, seizing two ships on Wednesday. Both sides maintain that the other is violating the ceasefire agreement.

The ceasefire was set to expire Wednesday, but the prospect of a deal has dwindled ever since American and Iranian negotiators failed to come to an agreement in Islamabad last week. The ceasefire has prevented large-scale fighting from returning to the region, which has seen Israel and America trade thousands of missile and drone strikes with Iran. The resulting Iranian counterattacks have led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and widespread damage to oil and gas capabilities across the Gulf states.

The stakes for both sides to reach a deal are high. Much of the Iranian government has been killed since the war began, and much of the country’s critical infrastructure lies damaged. President Trump’s threat to destroy every bridge and power plant would cause untold devastation to the nation.

President Trump, for his part, faces opinion polls that show that most Americans are not supportive of this war. The continued high cost of oil is weighing on the US economy, and the backlash from traditional allies has been strong. Iran’s strategy has been that they can take more damage to their country than President Trump could take political damage from the war. Whether that remains true will be determined in the next week, if the ceasefire ends.

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